Charting the Cryptoverse
Eventually, there will be a time to lighten the load on the crypto-train. That time is not yet now.
A lot of people have trouble understanding and evaluating the price of cryptocurrencies. Blockchains are really just networks, and they are subject to network effects. Similar to the growth trajectory of the internet and mobile phones, the value of the network increases exponentially with each user that joins.
Because of this, normal price charts don’t suffice to tell the market’s story. Instead, we use logarithmic charts with regression channels to paint a better picture. For the past few years, these charts have worked beautifully in helping understand where we are in the trend, and where we might be heading.
Bitcoin’s typical trough to peak ascent in this stage of the bull market is 140 days. The log regression trend suggests that we could see a pull back further as far down as $48k, before we continue upwards to $289k.
Ethereum’s typical trough to peak ascent in this stage of the bull market is also 140 days. The log regression trend suggests that we could see a pull back further as far down as $3,400, before we continue upwards to $22,396.
One method I have to the gauge the price of Ethereum is to look at its ratio against Bitcoin. In the cryptoverse, it makes sense to view all other coins in relation to Bitcoin because of its growing status as the reserve asset in the cryptoverse.
The relation of Ethereum to Bitcoin is cyclical in nature, making it a decent environment to use Fibonacci Retracement, a common tool and a pattern that is seen recurring in cycles all throughout nature. The target I have plotted in green is the .618 retracement line, which historically is a spot of great support and resistance. This chart suggests that we could see Ethereum reaching a price of 10% of 1 Bitcoin, which is supported by the log regression trend projection.
These charts reflect my bull case for Bitcoin and Ethereum, and they are still very much in play. They have not been violated over the long term, and continue to strengthen with bullish fundamentals developing on each network.
If something breaks, I’ll let you know.
This post, and these charts are not financial advice; and are for educational purposes only.